Game theory - prisonner's dilemma
eden profesor superski ni ja objasnuvase, ama malku sum zargjala, a mi treba... ne se sekjavam na detalite, samo deka se poarni ako si veruvaat i ako si go cuvaat grbot eden so drug, a deka ako se sebicni, ke go jadati dvajcata....
fala odnapred
Klasicen slucaj e koga imas dvajca uapseni od NKVD za vreme na Stalin vo SSSR. Ako edniot go otcinkari drugiot , a drugiot molci togas cinkarosot dobiva 3 meseci a onoj drugiot 10 godini. Ako dvajcata molcat ke dobijat po godina dena. Ako pak dvajcata se cinkraosi dobivaat po 3 godini.
E sega kako razmisluva sekoj poedinacno:
Ako onoj drugiot molci, optimalno e da jas go cinkaram.
Ako onoj drugiot cinkari, pak e optimalno e da go cinkaram.
Vo sekoj slucaj ke go cinkaram, a taka isto razmisluva i drugiot.
Kako rezultat, dvajcata cinkarat i dobivaat po 3 godini, iako najdobro ke bese za niv da molcea i dvajcata, togas ke bese kaznata samo godina dena.
Mislam deka dilemata najdobro e objasneta preku igra.
Znam deka ne sakas od Internet, ali ovdeka imas i "Real Life" primeri...Istovo ova sto go postirav go ima vo sekoja kniga sto ja imam...Ako i ova ne ti e jasno...vidi go postot na BorisVM...se nadevam deka ke ti pomogne:)
Prisoner's dilemma
In game theory, the prisoner's dilemma is a type of non-zero-sum game in which two players try to get rewards from a banker by cooperating with or betraying the other player. In this game, as in many others, it is assumed that the primary concern of each individual player ("prisoner") is self-regarding; i.e., trying to maximise his own advantage, with less concern for the well-being of the other players.
In the prisoner's dilemma, cooperating is strictly dominated by defecting (i.e., betraying one's partner), so that the only possible equilibrium for the game is for all players to defect. In simpler terms, no matter what the other player does, one player will always gain a greater payoff by playing defect. Since in any situation playing defect is more beneficial than cooperating, all rational players will play defect.
The unique equilibrium for this game does not lead to a Pareto-optimal solution—that is, two rational players will both play defect even though the total reward (the sum of the reward received by the two players) would be greater if they both played cooperate. In equilibrium, each prisoner chooses to defect even though both would be better off by cooperating, hence the dilemma.
In the iterated prisoner's dilemma the game is played repeatedly. Thus each player has an opportunity to "punish" the other player for previous non-cooperative play. Cooperation may then arise as an equilibrium outcome. The incentive to defect may then be overcome by the threat of punishment, leading to the possibility of a cooperative outcome. As the number of iterations approaches infinity, the Nash equilibrium tends to the Pareto optimum.
The classical prisoner's dilemma
The classical prisoner's dilemma (PD) is as follows:
Two suspects, A and B, are arrested by the police. The police have insufficient evidence for a conviction, and, having separated both prisoners, visit each of them to offer the same deal: if one testifies for the prosecution against the other and the other remains silent, the betrayer goes free and the silent accomplice receives the full 10-year sentence. If both stay silent, the police can sentence both prisoners to only six months in jail for a minor charge. If each betrays the other, each will receive a two-year sentence. Each prisoner must make the choice of whether to betray the other or to remain silent. However, neither prisoner knows for sure what choice the other prisoner will make. So the question this dilemma poses is: What will happen? How will the prisoners act?
The dilemma can be summarised thus:
Prisoner B Stays Silent Prisoner B Betrays
Prisoner A Stays Silent Both serve six months Prisoner A serves ten years
Prisoner B goes free
Prisoner A Betrays Prisoner A goes free
Prisoner B serves ten years Both serve two years
Generalised form
We can expose the skeleton of the game by stripping it of the Prisoners’ subtext. The generalised form of the game has been used frequently in experimental economics. The following rules give a typical realisation of the game.
There are two players and a banker. Each player holds a set of two cards: one printed with the word "Cooperate", the other printed with "Defect" (the standard terminology for the game). Each player puts one card face-down in front of the banker. By laying them face down, the possibility of a player knowing the other player's selection in advance is eliminated (although revealing one's move does not affect the dominance analysis[1]). At the end of the turn, the banker turns over both cards and gives out the payments accordingly.
If player 1 (red) defects and player 2 (blue) cooperates, player 1 gets the Temptation to Defect payoff of 5 points while player 2 receives the Suckers payoff of 0 points. If both cooperate they get the Reward for Mutual Cooperation payoff of 3 points each, while if they both defect they get the Punishment for Mutual Defection payoff of 1 point.
Real-life examples
These particular examples, involving prisoners and bag switching and so forth, may seem contrived, but there are in fact many examples in human interaction as well as interactions in nature that have the same payoff matrix. The prisoner's dilemma is therefore of interest to the social sciences such as economics, politics and sociology, as well as to the biological sciences such as ethology and evolutionary biology. Many natural processes have been abstracted into models in which living beings are engaged in endless games of Prisoner's Dilemma. This wide applicability of the PD gives the game its substantial importance.
In political science, for instance, the PD scenario is often used to illustrate the problem of two states engaged in an arms race. Both will reason that they have two options, either to increase military expenditure or to make an agreement to reduce weapons. Neither state can be certain that the other one will keep to such an agreement; therefore, they both incline towards military expansion. The paradox is that both states are acting "rationally", but producing an apparently "irrational" result. This could be considered a corollary to deterrence theory.
Another interesting example concerns a well-known concept in cycling races, for instance in the Tour de France. Consider two cyclists halfway in a race, with the peloton (larger group) at great distance behind them. The two cyclists often work together (mutual cooperation) by sharing the tough load of the front position, where there is no shelter from the wind. If neither of the cyclists makes an effort to stay ahead, the peloton will soon catch up (mutual defection). An often-seen scenario is one cyclist doing the hard work alone (cooperating), keeping the two ahead of the peloton. In the end, this will likely lead to a victory for the second cyclist (defecting) who has an easy ride in the first cyclist's slipstream.
An occurrence of the prisoner’s dilemma in real life can be found in business. Two competing firms must decide how many resources to devote to advertisement. The effectiveness of Firm A’s advertising is partially determined by the advertising conducted by Firm B. Likewise, the profit derived from advertising for Firm B is affected by the advertising conducted by Firm A. If both Firm A and Firm B choose to advertise during a given period the advertising cancels out, receipts remain constant, and expenses increase due to the cost of advertising. Both firms would benefit from a reduction in advertising. However, should Firm B choose not to advertise, Firm A could benefit greatly by advertising. A prisoners' dilemma occurs when both Firm A and Firm B have dominant strategies, so the outcome is easy to predict. A dominant strategy is an action that will give the best result no matter what decision the rival firm makes. It is unlikely in a true prisoners' dilemma that Firm A and Firm B will cooperate because there is too much incentive for both sides to "cheat" in order to get their best outcome. It is also true that both sides will end up worse off than if they had cooperated. However, sometimes cooperative behaviours emerge in business situations which are surprisingly beneficial to the masses [6].
William Poundstone, in a book about the Prisoner's Dilemma (see References below), describes a situation in New Zealand where newspaper boxes are left unlocked. It is possible for someone to take a paper without paying (defecting) but very few do, recognising the resultant harm if everybody stole newspapers (mutual defection). Since the pure PD is simultaneous for all players (with no way for any player's action to have an effect on another's strategy) this widespread line of reasoning is called "magical thinking".[3]
The theoretical conclusion of PD is one reason why, in many countries, plea bargaining is forbidden. Often, precisely the PD scenario applies: it is in the interest of both suspects to confess and testify against the other prisoner/suspect, even if each is innocent of the alleged crime. Arguably, the worst case is when only one party is guilty — here, the innocent one is unlikely to confess, while the guilty one is likely to confess and testify against the innocent.
Many real-life dilemmas involve multiple players. Although metaphorical, Hardin's tragedy of the commons may be viewed as an example of a multi-player generalisation of the PD: Each villager makes a choice for personal gain or restraint. The collective reward for unanimous (or even frequent) defection is very low payoffs (representing the destruction of the "commons"). However, such multi-player PDs are not formal as they can always be decomposed into a set of classical two-player games.
The iterated prisoner's dilemma
In his book The Evolution of Cooperation (1984), Robert Axelrod explored an extension to the classical PD scenario, which he called the iterated prisoner's dilemma (IPD). In this, participants have to choose their mutual strategy again and again, and have memory of their previous encounters. Axelrod invited academic colleagues all over the world to devise computer strategies to compete in an IPD tournament. The programs that were entered varied widely in algorithmic complexity; initial hostility; capacity for forgiveness; and so forth.
Axelrod discovered that when these encounters were repeated over a long period of time with many players, each with different strategies, "greedy" strategies tended to do very poorly in the long run while more "altruistic" strategies did better, as judged purely by self-interest. He used this to show a possible mechanism for the evolution of altruistic behaviour from mechanisms that are initially purely selfish, by natural selection.
The best deterministic strategy was found to be "Tit for Tat", which Anatol Rapoport developed and entered into the tournament. It was the simplest of any program entered, containing only four lines of BASIC, and won the contest. The strategy is simply to cooperate on the first iteration of the game; after that, the player does what his opponent did on the previous move. A slightly better strategy is "Tit for Tat with forgiveness". When the opponent defects, on the next move, the player sometimes cooperates anyway, with a small probability (around 1%-5%). This allows for occasional recovery from getting trapped in a cycle of defections. The exact probability depends on the line-up of opponents. "Tit for Tat with forgiveness" is best when miscommunication is introduced to the game — when one's move is incorrectly reported to the opponent.
By analysing the top-scoring strategies, Axelrod stated several conditions necessary for a strategy to be successful.
Nice
The most important condition is that the strategy must be "nice", that is, it will not defect before its opponent does. Almost all of the top-scoring strategies were nice. Therefore a purely selfish strategy for purely selfish reasons will never hit its opponent first.
Retaliating
However, Axelrod contended, the successful strategy must not be a blind optimist. It must always retaliate. An example of a non-retaliating strategy is Always Cooperate. This is a very bad choice, as "nasty" strategies will ruthlessly exploit such softies.
Forgiving
Another quality of successful strategies is that they must be forgiving. Though they will retaliate, they will once again fall back to cooperating if the opponent does not continue to play defects. This stops long runs of revenge and counter-revenge, maximising points.
Non-envious
The last quality is being non-envious, that is not striving to score more than the opponent (impossible for a ‘nice’ strategy, i.e., a 'nice' strategy can never score more than the opponent).
Therefore, Axelrod reached the Utopian-sounding conclusion that selfish individuals for their own selfish good will tend to be nice and forgiving and non-envious. One of the most important conclusions of Axelrod's study of IPDs is that Nice guys can finish first.
Reconsider the arms-race model given in the classical PD section above: It was concluded that the only rational strategy was to build up the military, even though both nations would rather spend their GDP on butter than guns. Interestingly, attempts to show that rival states actually compete in this way (by regressing "high" and "low" military spending between periods under iterated PD assumptions) often show that the posited arms race is not occurring as expected. (For example Greek and Turkish military spending does not appear to follow a tit-for-tat iterated-PD arms-race, but is more likely driven by domestic politics.) This may be an example of rational behaviour differing between the one-off and iterated forms of the game.
The optimal (points-maximising) strategy for the one-time PD game is simply defection; as explained above, this is true whatever the composition of opponents may be. However, in the iterated-PD game the optimal strategy depends upon the strategies of likely opponents, and how they will react to defections and cooperations. For example, consider a population where everyone defects every time, except for a single individual following the Tit-for-Tat strategy. That individual is at a slight disadvantage because of the loss on the first turn. In such a population, the optimal strategy for that individual is to defect every time. In a population with a certain percentage of always-defectors and the rest being Tit-for-Tat players, the optimal strategy for an individual depends on the percentage, and on the length of the game.
Deriving the optimal strategy is generally done in two ways:
1. Bayesian Nash Equilibrium: If the statistical distribution of opposing strategies can be determined (e.g. 50% tit-for-tat, 50% always cooperate) an optimal counter-strategy can be derived mathematically[4].
2. Monte Carlo simulations of populations have been made, where individuals with low scores die off, and those with high scores reproduce (a genetic algorithm for finding an optimal strategy). The mix of algorithms in the final population generally depends on the mix in the initial population.
Although Tit-for-Tat was long considered to be the most solid basic strategy, a team from Southampton University in England (led by Professor Nicholas Jennings [1], and including Rajdeep Dash, Sarvapali Ramchurn, Alex Rogers and Perukrishnen Vytelingum) introduced a new strategy at the 20th-anniversary Iterated Prisoner's Dilemma competition, which proved to be more successful than Tit-for-Tat. This strategy relied on cooperation between programs to achieve the highest number of points for a single program. The University submitted 60 programs to the competition, which were designed to recognise each other through a series of five to ten moves at the start. Once this recognition was made, one program would always cooperate and the other would always defect, assuring the maximum number of points for the defector. If the program realised that it was playing a non-Southampton player, it would continuously defect in an attempt to minimise the score of the competing program. As a result[5], this strategy ended up taking the top three positions in the competition, as well as a number of positions towards the bottom.
Although this strategy is notable in that it proved more effective than Tit-for-Tat, it takes advantage of the fact that multiple entries were allowed in this particular competition. In a competition where one has control of only a single player, Tit-for-Tat is certainly a better strategy. It also relies on circumventing rules about the prisoner's dilemma in that there is no communication allowed between the two players. When the Southampton programs engage in an opening "ten move dance" to recognize one another, this only reinforces just how valuable communication can be in shifting the balance of the game.
If an iterated PD is going to be iterated exactly N times, for some known constant N, then there is another interesting fact. The Nash equilibrium is to defect every time. That is easily proved by induction; one might as well defect on the last turn, since the opponent will not have a chance to punish the player. Therefore, both will defect on the last turn. Thus, the player might as well defect on the second-to-last turn, since the opponent will defect on the last no matter what is done, and so on. For cooperation to remain appealing, then, the future must be indeterminate for both players. One solution is to make the total number of turns N random. The shadow of the future must be indeterminably long.
Another odd case is "play forever" prisoner's dilemma. The game is repeated infinitely many times, and the player's score is the average (suitably computed).
The prisoner's dilemma game is fundamental to certain theories of human cooperation and trust. On the assumption that the PD can model transactions between two people requiring trust, cooperative behaviour in populations may be modelled by a multi-player, iterated, version of the game. It has, consequently, fascinated many, many scholars over the years. In 1975, Grofman and Pool estimated the count of scholarly articles devoted to it at over 2000.
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Learning psychology and game theory
Where game players can learn to estimate the likelihood of other players defecting, their own behaviour is influenced by their experience of that of others. Simple statistics show that inexperienced players are more likely to have had, overall, atypically good or bad interactions with other players. If they act on the basis of these experiences (by defecting or cooperating more than they would otherwise) they are likely to suffer in future transactions. As more experience is accrued a truer impression of the likelihood of defection is gained and game playing becomes more successful. The early transactions experienced by immature players are likely to have a greater effect on their future playing than would such transactions affect mature players. This principle goes part way towards explaining why the formative experiences of young people are so influential and why they are particularly vulnerable to bullying, sometimes ending up as bullies themselves.
The likelihood of defection in a population may be reduced by the experience of cooperation in earlier games allowing trust to build up[6]. Hence self-sacrificing behaviour may, in some instances, strengthen the moral fibre of a group. If the group is small the positive behaviour is more likely to feedback in a mutually affirming way encouraging individuals within that group to continue to cooperate. This is allied to the twin dilemma of encouraging those people whom one would aid to indulge in behaviour that might put them at risk. Such processes are major concerns within the study of reciprocal altruism, group selection, kin selection and moral philosophy.
Friend or Foe?
Friend or Foe... is a game show that aired from 2002 to 2005 on the Game Show Network in the United States. It is an example of the prisoner's dilemma game tested by real people, but in an artificial setting. On the game show, three pairs of people compete. As each pair is eliminated, they play a game of Prisoner's Dilemma to determine how their winnings are split. If they both cooperate ("Friend"), they share the winnings 50-50. If one cooperates and the other defects ("Foe"), the defector gets all the winnings and the cooperator gets nothing. If both defect, both leave with nothing. Notice that the payoff matrix is slightly different from the standard one given above, as the payouts for the "both defect" and the "cooperate while the opponent defects" cases are identical. This makes the "both defect" case a weak equilibrium, compared with being a strict equilibrium in the standard prisoner's dilemma. If you know your opponent is going to vote "Foe", then your choice does not affect your winnings. In a certain sense, "Friend or Foe" has a payoff model between "Prisoner's Dilemma" and "Chicken".
The payoff matrix is
* If both players cooperate, each gets +1.
* If both defect, each gets 0.
* If A cooperates and B defects, A gets +0 and B gets +2.
Friend or Foe would be useful for someone who wanted to do a real-life analysis of prisoner's dilemma. Notice that participants only get to play once, so all the issues involving repeated playing are not present and a "tit for tat" strategy cannot develop.
In Friend or Foe, each player is allowed to make a statement to convince the other of his friendliness before both make the secret decision to cooperate or defect. One possible way to 'beat the system' would be for a player to tell his rival, "I am going to choose foe. If you trust me to split the winnings with you later, choose friend. Otherwise, if you choose foe, we both walk away with nothing." A greedier version of this would be "I am going to choose foe. I am going to give you X%, and I'll take (100-X)% of the total prize package. So, take it or leave it, we both get something or we both get nothing." (As in the Ultimatum game.) Now, the trick is to minimise X such that the other contestant will still choose friend. Basically, the player has to know the threshold at which the utility his opponent gets from watching him receive nothing exceeds the utility he gets from the money he stands to win if he just went along.
This approach was never tried in the game; it's possible that the judges might not allow it, and that even if they did, inequity aversion would produce a lower expected payoff from using the tactic. (Ultimatum games in which this approach was attempted have led to rejections of high but unequal offers – in some cases up to two weeks wages have been turned down in preference to both players receiving nothing.)
Valjda ke dobijam nekoj poen na ispit sega ako padne ova prasanje :-(